Riset Saham analis asing

CS: Unilever Indonesia (UNVR, U, PT Rp15,275):
Earnings Tweaked, Net Profit Only to Grow in Single Digit, Valuation Demanding

∙ Post 2012 results announcement, Ella cuts UNVR’s 2013/14 earnings forecast by 3%/5%, due to higher interest expense assumptions from its Rp1.5 tn short-term loans in 2013. On capex, Ella assumes UNVR to spend Rp1.0 tn for capacity expansion. She maintains 100% DPR assumption for UNVR in 2013, which provides a dividend yield of less than 3%. ∙ Ella maintains UNDERPERFORM rating on UNVR with TP of Rp15,725 – which implies 23.3x 2013 P/E. She believes UNVR’s rich valuation is not justified by 8% earnings growth over the next two years – which is partly due to the hike in royalty payments, that would squeeze UNVR’s operating margins, starting this year,.

Sales commentary: UNVR share price is gradually recovering from its lows in December 2012, post the royalty hike announcement. Ella is assuming lower 2013/14 operating margin for UNVR at 21.9%/20.1% – vs 22.3%/20.8% previously. We reckon investors would be scrutinizing UNVR’s 1Q13 result announcement to see the magnitude of the royalty hike impact to UNVR’s margins.


Macquarie Capital Second: ACES 
Ace Hardware-Keeps on delivering. Earnings and target price revision
FY13E EPS +10.7%; FY14E EPS +9.7%: Upgrades reflect higher absolute EBIT margin forecasts but a higher FY12A base and anticipated gradual mean reversion will temporarily lower ACES’s forecast earnings growth rate vs. its revenue growth (still c30%). PT raised to Rp1.1k (from Rp1.0k). Price catalyst 12-month price target: Rp1,100 based on a PER methodology.
Catalyst: 1Q13E result (expected in late April). Action and recommendation
Outperform maintained: ACES remains one of our top small-cap picks.


CS 09 April 2013: Indonesia Cement Sector: 1Q13 Domestic Cement Consumption Up 8.6% YoY

∙ The Indonesian Cement Association reported slower domestic consumption growth in March 2013 at 4.53 mn tons (+3.5% YoY). Cement exports, meanwhile, remained minimal in March at 13k tons (+46% YoY). ∙ During 1Q13, domestic cement consumption totalled 13.6 mn tons (+8.6% YoY), which accounts for 26% of CS’ 2013 projection of 57.8 mn tons. On QoQ, basis the aforesaid total is down 12.4% due to seasonality. ∙ In 1Q13, Semen Indonesia’s (SMGR, O, PT Rp13,850) market share grew to 43.8% from 39.5% in 1Q12. Indocement’s (INTP, N, PT Rp20,500) and Hocim Indonesia’s (SMCB, U, PT Rp3,000) market share stood at 30.6% and 14.6% respectively – vs 32.5% and 16.1% in 1Q12. ∙ Ella Nusantoro maintains OVERWEIGHT rating on the Indonesia cement sector. Her top pick is SMGR amid its aggressive program to expand its production capacity relative to its peers.

Sales commentary: We share Ella’s optimism on the Indonesian cement sector and SMGR. We reckon SMGR will continue to expand its market share, which should be followed by margin expansion.