Riset Kamis 11 April 2013

Ini riset aneka property dan konstruksi, sektor yang lagi booming nih, plus bonus mie special AISA yang boleh dimonitor untuk portofolio, mie telor ini naik 5 % dah hari ini. O iya hati2 sama ITMG meski banyak deviden, analis ada analisa downgrade

O, iya, yang suka supermarket ada RALS, dan riset CPO yang lagi dihajar terus, hais, masih jelek aja riset nya ini. Yah, semua ada waktunya, kadang naik, kadang turun, dah sabar dulu deh CPO melorot dulu.

RISET FR CIMB 11 APRIL 2013 :

1.Ramayana Lestari | Fixes and smoke signals
RALS IJ / RALS.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp1,370.00 - Tgt. Rp1,800.00
Retail | by Cindy EFFENDI,

Another tweak to its supermarket business and the introduction of bazaars may boost Ramayana’s margin and sales. Its decision to segregate the financial reporting of its department store and supermarket businesses could be a prelude to divestment of the latter. Although we trim FY13-14 sales for 1Q13’s weak sales, we raise our earnings for better margins. Shrinking the low-margin supermarket space for higher-margin products may work in the short term while bazaars may boost SSSG and help earnings. This reinforces our Outperform rating. We raise our target price to Rp1,800 as we now value it at 22.5x CY14 P/E, a 10% discount to Ace, instead of 20%.
(10 April 2013)



2.ASEAN Sector Note Plantations | A more difficult upward march NEUTRAL - Maintained by Ivy NG, CFA, Erindra KRISNAWAN, Erisca WIRAATMADJA, Xiao Jun SAW

We have cut our average CPO price by 2-5% for 2013-2015 to account for lower biodiesel demand from Europe and higher palm oil and soybean supplies. 1Q13 CPO prices were below our expectations as high palm oil stocks continue to put a lid on price rallies. We cut our EPS forecasts for planters by 1-30% to reflect our crude palm oil (CPO) price downgrade. This reduces our target prices by up to 2-24% across the board. We have downgraded ratings for AALI, SGRO, SIMP and IFAR due to weaker earnings prospects, and upgraded IOI Corp to Neutral. Our sector rating remains Neutral as we believe its underperformance has priced in weaker earnings prospects. Our key top picks are Wilmar and BW Plants.

(10 April 2013)

Nomura(FG) | Tiga Pilar Sejahtera (AISA)
April 11, 2013

Target price at IDR2,000Our target price of IDR2,000 translates to 18x FY14F P/E, or a 15% discount to our DDM
valuation of IDR2,372, assuming 11% WACC and a 5% long-term growth rate, discounted to FY14F.

We value TPS using P/E multiple valuation in line with our valuation for the other Indonesia consumer companies under our coverage. Our target P/E of 18x is at a deep
discount to the JCI Consumer’s leading P/E of 24x, reflecting the relatively high execution risk we see at TPS given that it is relatively new in some of its businesses,
such as rice and agri-business.

On a longer-term perspective, we value the company using a DDM valuation methodology, which derives a fair value of IDR2,372 or 15% above our target price. This
valuation assumes long-term growth of 5% and WACC of 11%, discounted to FY14F.

In our SOTP, we value Tiga Pilar plantation at USD240mn which is based on the average of USD10K/ha for the planted areas and USD1000/ha for the unplanted
landbank. This compares to the replacement value of USD6,500/ha (and takes 7 years to develop), around USD10,000/ha in physical transaction, and average EV/ha of USD11.5k of Indonesian plantations under our coverage. We derived a valuation of IDR3,028/shares or 34% premium to our TP.


Construction | Growth in spades
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
by Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA

We continue to like the construction sector’s growth story, which should extend its rerating even though the sector has run up 37% YTD, outperforming the JCI by 24%. Investors are likely to pay for higher multiples in boom conditions. We reiterate our Overweight stance; WIKA and ADHI are our top picks. The sector is expected to notch up an EPS CAGR of 33.3% for 2013-15, even higher than FY12’s 29.6% growth. We believe that a rerating is warranted as the growth is consistent with an improvement in the quality of the sector’s returns. Catalysts include acquisition of multi-year and high- profile projects, consolidation and the unlocking of the value of subsidiaries.

ADHI Outperform TP 3,300
PTPP Outperform TP 1,350
TOTL Outperform TP 1,120
WIKA Outperform TP 2,300
(11 April 2013)

MORGAN STANLEY (MS) | Indonesia Property
Bullish on Industrial Demand and Pricing; OW BEST/SSIA

An underlying structural story - industrialization to support a growing middle class - is driving a multi-year demand upswing for industrial land while limited readily available supply is preserving pricing power. We initiate on BEST and SSIA at Overweight.

Why we are bullish on Indonesian industrial estates:

·Demand drivers are multi-year
They include: 1) rapid industrialization of the economy, led by Japanese manufacturers; 2) growing domestic consumption, and, 3) an FDI backlog of US$75bn at end-3Q12. Also, relocation from central Jakarta estates could be a tailwind.

·Pricing power is still strong despite a threefold increase in three years
Readily available industrial land is in short supply, and mix is improving from smaller lot sales. Year to date, BEST land prices are up 24%; SSIA's up 18%.

·Land banking should further boost RNAV Execution is a risk (e.g., SSIA's 1,000ha land swap is already one year overdue). But, there are a number of due diligences under way that could bear fruit over the next 6-12 months.

BEST - 7.7x 2014e EPS with a 34% 2012-15e EPS CAGR: We are 9% ahead of consensus for 2014 EPS and see upside potential to our 2013 marketing sales estimate of 87ha of land. We also see potential for land banking value of Rp498 RNAV per share from current licenses and three new sites under due diligence. And, recurring revenues are just getting started, in our view, with plans for warehouse and factory leasing.

SSIA - Upside drivers to 2013 RNAV: SSIA plans IPO of a construction unit in 2Q13, is starting work on a 116km toll road in May, accelerating Bekasi land banking, expanding into the rental market, and targeting 2H13 for a 1,000ha land swap with the government. It plans to revamp its office site, but funding is undecided.

BAHANA: ITMG
Recommendation & Valuation: Retain REDUCE on 23% downside
As we upgrade our 2013-14 net earnings by around 4% (exhibit 5), we raise our DCF-based target price by 2% to IDR30,350, reflecting still 23% downside potential from current price level. With minimal earnings changes and EPS growth remaining unexciting in 2013-14, we expect ITMG’s share price underperformance (exhibit 4) to persist, particularly as we believe coal prices to remain relatively subdued going forward on pressures stemming from continued global economic uncertainties. Reiterate REDUCE.


Credit Suisse Securitis Indonesia:

Lippo Cikarang (LPCK, N, PT Rp6,000): 2012: Earnings Up by 58% YoY

∙ LPCK’s 2012 marketing sales stood at of Rp2.06 tn – higher than CS’ expectations –which is supported by higher-than-expected selling price and sales volume. LPCK, however, reported slower-than-expected accounting revenues recognition at Rp1.01 tn (+12% YoY) in 2012, which accounts for just 89% of CS’ projection.
∙ Fortunately, LPCK also booked lower-than-expected COGS and operating expenses in 2012, which led to 13% higher-than-expected earnings at Rp407 bn (+58% YoY). Teddy revised up LPCK’s 2013/14 earnings projection by 13%/7%, on the back of the strong 2012 earnings.
∙ LPCK is planning to develop a Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Centre on 5.3 ha land plot in Cikarang for Japanese investors that are expanding in Indonesia. In the residential market, LPCK has started the construction of Trivium Terrace, which was launched in Nov-12.
∙ Teddy likes LPCK’s integrated township strategy that includes commercial, industrial and residential estates. He downgraded the stock to NEUTRAL, however, as LPCK has gained 106% YTD and outperformed the JCI by 93%. Teddy’s new TP on LPCK is Rp6,000 (vs Rp4,500 previously), which implies 8.1x 2013 P/E. The stock is currently trading at 8.7x 13P/E.

Sales commentary: We maintain our preference for Surya Semesa (SSIA, O, PT Rp2,000) and Bekasi Fajar (BEST, O, PT Rp1,200) in the Indonesian industrial estate space. These two companies are projected to post the highest earnings growth (175% and 293% YoY for the former and the latter) and ROE (32 % and 34% respectively) in 2013.

Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia:
Summarecon Agung (SMRA, N, PT Rp2,650): 2012: Robust 104% YoY Earnings Growth, Ahead of Expectations

∙ SMRA’s 2012 revenue came-in at Rp3.46 tn (+47% YoY), which is 9% ahead of CS’ projection, supported by strong top lines from property development and investment property divisions. SMRA’s 2012 earnings stood at Rp798 bn (+104% YoY), which is 38% higher than CS’ projection, supported by lower opex and higher-than-expected interest income.
∙ SMRA’s 2012 marketing sales came-in in-line with CS’ projection at Rp1.2 tn. During the period, SMRA recorded: 1) higher selling price but lower-than-expected land sales volume in Kelapa Gading area; and 2) higher-than-projected land sales volume but lower-than-expected selling price in Serpong area.
∙ Teddy Oetomo upgraded SMRA’s 2013/14 earnings forecast by 21%/20% to account for: 1) robust market sales and revenue projections; and 2) lower opex. But given SMRA’s higher-end target market, Teddy sees a potential risk of moderating property investment demand ahead of the upcoming 2014 elections. In addition, SMRA is currently trading at premium valuation. The aforesaid reasons led Teddy to maintain NEUTRAL rating on SMRA unchanged, despite the stock’s higher PT of Rp2,650 (vs Rp2,430 previously) that implies 22.9x FY13E P/E.