Happy New Year 2015

Watchlist Senin, 5 Januari 2015:

1. INDF & CPIN masih bisa berpotensi mengalami penguatan.

2. BJBR (Beli di kisaran 720-730), Cut Loss bila 690, Target Price 805

3. MAPI (Beli apabila >5100), Cut Loss bila 4975, Target Price 5400
4. MPPA (Beli apabila >3110), Cut Loss bila 3030, Target Price 3300

Speculative Buy:

1. JPFA (Buy: 950, CL: 930, TP 1050)

2. ITMG (Buy: 16000, CL: 15200, TP 18000)

[Disclaimer: On]


Good morning,

U.S. stocks ended near unchanged on Friday, with the S&P 500 down for a third session, after economic reports showed manufacturing slowing but still in expansion mode at the end of 2014.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index came in at 55.5 in December, below expectations of a decline to 57.6 from 58.7 in November; separately, construction spending dropped 0.3 percent in November, versus a projected 0.3 percent gain.


Dow.........17833 +9.92   +0.06%
Nasdaq......4727  -9.2      -0.20%
S&P 500.....2058  -0.7      -0.03%

FTSE..........6548  -18.3    -0.28%
DAX...........9765  -40.8    -0.42%
CAC...........4252  -20.5    -0.48%

Nikkei......17451 closed  +0%
HSI..........23858 +252.8 +1.07%
Shanghai...3235 +68.9   +2.18%
ST Times...3371 +5.44   +0.16%

Indo10Yr.. 7.8625-0.0371 -0.46%
INDOBex176.6965+0.769+0.44%
US10Yr....2.12%   -0.05     -2.17%

VIX.........17.79     -1.41     -7.34%

USD Index....91.08 +0.80 +0.89%
Como Index 228.41 -1.54  -0.67%
(Core Commodity CRB )
DJUSCL......95.26    +1.08 +1.15%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS....163.67  +6.66 +4.24%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR.........12545   +157.5 +1.27%
(Bloomberg)
Jisdor......12474   +34      +0.27%
Euro........1.2002  -0.0102 -0.84%

TLKM.......44.91     -0.32   -0.71%
(Rp 2817)
ARMS Plc.17.50     -7.00    -28.57%
JAPFA LTD..0.635  +0.085+15.45%
(Singapore)
EIDO........26.78    -0.66    -2.41%
EEM.........38.77    -0.52    -1.32%

Oil...........52.69    -0.58    -1.09%    
Gold ......1188.39 +6.41  +0.54%
Timah.....19645   +245   +1.26%!!
Nickel.....14830    -320    -2.11%!!
CPO...........2244   -23      -1.01%
Corn........395.75  -1.25    -0.31%
SoybeanOil.32.09 -0.05    -0.16%
Wheat.....581.5    -8.50    -1.44%
Monday (05/01/2015) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Kejatuhan DJIA selama minggu lalu -220.72 poin (-1.22%) seiring kejatuhan harga minyak mentah & penguatan US Dollar dimana ini mengindikasikan market agak berhati-hati memasuki tahun 2015.

Sementara minggu ini fokus pelaku pasar di Wall Street tertuju atas data ADP Employment & Nonfarm Payrolls bln Desember, Unemployment Rate, FOMC Minutes Meeting, ISM non manufacturing & Factory Orders.

Dilain pihak data regional market yg perlu mendapat perhatian yakni: Euro-Zone CPI, China CPI, China PPI, German Retail Sales, German CPI, China HSBC PMI Services, Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate & Euro-Zone Retail Sales.

Setelah IHSG seminggu lalu naik +75.79 poin (+1.47%), maka eforia window dressing akan memudar & mulai berpikir rasional merujuk terus turunnya harga minyak mentah dunia, bahkan ada analisis ekstrim yang memperkirakan oil bisa menyentuh $13.65/barrel (moderat memperkirakan oil bisa turun ke level $35-$44 per barrel), yang artinya akan mengurangi revenue APBN, kejatuhan EIDO -2.41% & kembali terdepresiasinya Rupiah terhadap USD sebesar -1.27% kelevel Rp 15,545 akibat penguatan US Dollar terhadap major currency 9 tahun terakhir & trade deficit Indonesia bulan November sebesar $420 juta menjadi perhatian pelaku pasar dimana ada peluang IHSG terkoreksi setelah 4 hari sebelumnya mengalami kenaikan.

DJIA +9.92 +0.06% 17832.99
NASDAQ -9.24 -0.20% 4726.81
S&P -0.70 -0.03% 2058.20
GOLD +2.10 +0.18% 1186.20
OIL -0.58 -1.09% 52.69
NICKEL -320 -2.11% 14,830
TIN +245 +1.26% 19,645
CPO +17 +0.75%  2,283
EIDO -0.66 -2.41% $26.78
TLK. 44.91 (2,817)
IDR 12,545

Monday IDX Range: 5,216 - 5,258

BUY: INDF, BSDE, BMRI, JSMR, BBRI, AKRA, SILO, SMGR, JSMR, ICBP, GGRM, AALI, ADHI, LPKR, BBCA (ES-MNC Sec/Disc On)

"Have a Dazzling Monday & GBU All"
Monday (05/01/2015) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 5,216 - 5,258    
Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan peluang penguatan IDX dalam perdagangan Senin.  

Monday Stocks Pick:
INDF 7050-7650 (TP 2015F:8200) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 7425

BSDE 1810-1930 (TP 2015F:2400). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1860.

BMRI 10700-10975 (TP 2015F:12275) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 10800

JSMR 6975-7300 ((TP 2015F:8050). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 7075

BBRI 11550-11825 (TP 2015F:13450) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11625

AKRA 4240-4760 (TP 2015F:4800) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4490
     
SMGR 16100-16400 (TP 2015F:19800) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 16175.

JSMR 6975-7300 ((TP 2015F:8050). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 7075

ICBP 12950-13500 (TP 2015F:14350) Pola Four White Soldiers  terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 13125

GGRM 61000-62825 (TP 2015F:67450) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 61775.

AALI 24200-25350 (TP 2015F:29000) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 24550.

ADHI 3500-3650 (TP 2015F:4000) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas ADHI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 3550.

BBCA 13100-13350 (TP 2015F:15495) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 13200 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On).