Riset saham Senin 22 April 2013

RISET FR CIMB 22 APRIL 2013 :


1.Strategy | Rate hike impact review
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
by Erwan TEGUH, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA

As the probability of a rate hike has increased, we review the past impact of such an event on fundamentals and valuations. Our study suggests that any adverse outcomes will be short-lived and a rebound will be enough reward for enduring near-term downside jitters. Interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as auto and banks, will bear the brunt over the short term while defensive sectors, such as infrastructure, are more resilient. Trading opportunities may still exist although the market has held up very well, supported by local buying. Our structural long-term call remains Overweight, with an unchanged FY13 index target of 5,250 (13.7x FY14 P/E). Key defensive picks are JSMR, PGAS and TLKM.

Key Picks : Shielding oneself from hike impact :
JSMR Outperform TP 7,300
KLBF Outperform TP 1,300
LPKR Outperform TP 1,500
PGAS Outperform TP 5,550
SMSM Outperform TP 2,900
TLKM Neutral TP 10,900

(19 APRIL 2013)



2.Bank Danamon | Searching for growth
BDMN IJ / BDMN.JK | TRADING BUY -Maintained | Rp6,200.00 - Tgt. Rp7,000.00
Banks | by Erwan TEGUH, Soegiarto HADI

Loan growth decelerated to 11% yoy, as traditional growth drivers in Adira and micro lending struggled in saturated markets. Otherwise, Danamon maintained solid operational metrics while awaiting BI approval for its acquisition by DBS. 1Q13 results are in line, at 22% of our forecast and consensus. We maintain our EPS, Trading Buy (tender offer from Singapore-based DBS) and target price, still based on the tender offer price. (19 APRIL 2013)

3.Bank Tabungan Negara | Provisioning headwinds
BBTN IJ / BBTN.JK | OUTPERFORM -Maintained | Rp1,690.00 - Tgt. Rp2,000.00
Banks | by Erwan TEGUH, Soegiarto HADI

BTN’s 1Q13 results were in line with our and consensus expectations at 20-21% of forecasts, although a strong top-line was partially offset by increased provisioning. The 5%-pt tax reduction will provide relief while BTN shores up its asset quality in the next few quarters. We maintain our EPS forecasts, GGM-based target price and Outperform rating on the back of strong mortgage growth. (19 APRIL 2013)



4.ASIA PACIFIC Strategy Note
Ahead of the Curve | Inflation down under
by Jim McCAFFERTY, James BARRETT, CFA

Signs of a stronger Australian consumer will be tested this week. Australian CPI data, expected on Wednesday, is likely to show an increase from 2.2% to 2.8%. Recent results from housing and consumer stocks suggest that the Australian consumer is recovering.