Riset Saham, Selasa 23 April 2013

RISET FR CIMB 23 APRIL 2013 :


1.Property - Overall | Unfazed by adversity
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA,

Amid policy concerns over Indonesia, selected developers under our coverage continued to beat their historical presales in 1Q13. Their accelerating turnover was backed by more volume sold, which sits well with our intact Overweight position. Monetisation rates have improved and should continue to do so before elections. We like such improvements, as they typically correspond with earnings and ROCE growth. Catalysts should include earnings surprises, asset sales and banks’ continued willingness to offer better mortgage terms. Our top picks are CTRA and ASRI.

Pricing the main driver
Fears over slower growth in pricing or volume have not materialised for the sector as the companies we follow sold 25% more housing units in 1Q13 than in 1Q12 with pricing growth of 16-44%. In terms of volume, the largest developers sold a total of 4,093 units in 1Q13, which is equal to 5% of FY12 national sales. A shift in their product emphasis (to the mid-upper range) in 1Q13 was behind their price/unit growth. Total sales for our five developers reached Rp8tr in 1Q13 to form 40% of FY12’s number, suggesting the sector went full throttle from Day 1.

Under-penetration of mortgage market remains
Mortgage growth in 2M13 was 18% with a net addition of Rp4tr. This still implies that very few buyers are using mortgages for payment or very few are in the process of getting mortgages. Among the developers that reported, the Ciputra Group indicated that about 51% of its presales value will be financed by mortgages. We estimate a similar portion of mortgage financing for township developers under our coverage, except for MTLA which has the highest portion of approximately 80%.


Top picks maintained
CTRA and ASRI remain our top picks with 44% and 32% EPS CAGRs forecast for 2012-15. Upside to our earnings estimate from land plot sales could serve as the main re-rating catalyst.


Sector Comparison :

ASRI Outperform TP 1,300
BEST Outperform TP 1,100
BSDE Outperform TP 2,200
CTRA Outperform TP 1,350
CTRP Outperform TP 1,350
LPKR Outperform TP 1,500
MTLA Outperform TP 730
SMRA Outperform TP 3,000
SSIA Outperform TP 2,000

(22 APRIL 2013)