Kamis, 11 April 2013

Riset Jumat 12 April 2013, BSDE 2400, ADRO dbs suka, MAIN TP 3500

ZP (Kim Eng) :

Malindo Feedmill (MAIN.IJ, Buy) - Not Unduly Worried About Bird Flu

* Recently, avian flu has surfaced in China. The media has reported that the new H7N9 strain of bird flu has attacked 28 people, nine of whom have died. China’s avian flu outbreak should have little impact on the poultry industry in Indonesia because Indonesia does not import both grand parent of DOC nor live bird from China.

* We are not unduly worried about bird flu in China. Since 2004, avian flu has occurred in Indonesia on a yearly basis. Yet, chicken production and consumption has grown every year.

DBS Vickers: BSDE

By Anastasia Dara

+ 6221 3983 5391;

Maynard Arif

+ 6221 3983 2668

∙ Tripling 1Q13 pre-sales on JVs land sales to Rp2.6tr

∙ Manado acquisition announced

∙ Reiterate BUY call with Rp2,400 TP

Tripling 1Q13 pre-sales on JV land sales.

1Q13 pre-sales tripled to Rp2.6tr, comprising 37% of the company’s Rp7tr FY13F target. Such pre-sales was achieved faster than expected as we only expect Rp2.1tr for 1Q13’s pre-sales, comprising 30% of the target. BSDE has managed to book Rp1.7tr of pre-sales from 57ha (out of the total 65ha) of land sales to its JV with Hong Kong Land as well as 9.5ha out of the land sale to its JV with AEON Mall.Aside from the pre sales from JVs, BSDE booked Rp892bn, up 8% y-o-y where c.Rp500bn came from BSD City . Note that BSDE only had two residential sub cluster launches in BSD City where it typically has 10 to 15 launches for the year. Hence, we expect busier launches activities throughout the year to support the pre sales growth.

Manado acquisition.

BSDE has also announced a 14ha landbank acquisition in Manado through its 51% stake purchase in Duta Dharma Sinarmas. Although we do not see immediate earnings accretion from this, we see this move as being positive. It shows BSDE’s effort to continuously diversify its projects and expansion outside Greater Jakarta to support its long term growth. We always see this as one of BSDE’s competitive strengths against other players.

Maintain BUY, Rp2,400 TP.

Despite the share price’s strong performance YTD (+50%), BSDE is still trading at a 52% discount to our RNAV. This is still cheaper than peers at a c.40% discounts. The strong 1Q13 pre-sales should be a positive catalyst for the stock. The positive sentiment towards the counter should continue as we expect strong 1Q13 earnings as BSDE should be able to immediately recognise part of the JV’s pre-sales, boosting growth.

DBS Vickers: Indonesia Coal-Slow recovery

By Ariyanto Kurniawan

+6221 3983 5390;

June Ng

+603 2711 2222

∙ Expect 1H13 earnings to remain weak but margins might recover q-o-q driven by lower production cost

∙ Miners to focus on cutting costs in 2013

∙ Valuations reflect weak earnings expectation. Our pick is ADRO.

Valuations reflect weak earnings expectations.

The sector trading at -1SD of mean, which should reflect the weak earnings expectations. We selectively pick stocks with clearer longer-term growth prospects backed by large reserves. Our pick is ADRO for its earnings quality and volume growth prospects driven by existing and newly acquired mines. We also like PTBA in anticipation of strong volume growth in the next 2-3 years driven by higher transportation capacity. Maintain HOLD rating for ITMG, HRUM, and BORN. Key risk: slow recovery in coal prices.

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